Tough Results: An Analysis of China’s Military Exercises near Taiwan

China Announces War Games Around Taiwan: Reasons and Implications

Context and Announcement

China has announced two days of war games around the self-ruled island of Taiwan, involving naval vessels and military aircraft encircling the island. This escalation follows the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing has labeled a “dangerous separatist.”

Historical Background

Since 1949, Taiwan has been self-governing after the Nationalists sought refuge on the island following their defeat in the Chinese Civil War to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Beijing considers this democratic island part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to bring it under its control.

Reasons Behind the Drills

1. Political Context: The recent inauguration of Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, has heightened tensions. Lai’s commitment to defending Taiwan’s democracy and his statement that both sides “are not subordinate to each other” have been seen by Beijing as a declaration of independence. In response, China announced the drills as a “severe punishment for independence attempts.”
2. Strategic Messaging: According to Rory Daniels, Managing Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, “Beijing is concerned that Lai’s move towards genuine independence might encourage the international community to support formal independence.” These drills aim to send a message to Taiwan and its allies about the consequences of such moves.

Implications of the Drills

1. Military Demonstration: Analysts believe these exercises are mainly to demonstrate China’s military capability and readiness to encircle Taiwan swiftly if needed. This is intended to deter external armed intervention and expedite the resolution of the Taiwan issue. Former Chinese military officer Song Zhongping noted that the People’s Liberation Army wants to show its capacity for rapid blockade and control over Taiwan.
2. Domestic Audience: These drills also cater to domestic audiences. James Char, a Chinese military expert at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, mentioned that these exercises are a tried and tested way for the CCP to reassure nationalist concerns about defending Chinese national sovereignty.

Differences from Previous Drills

1. Duration and Scope: The current war games are set for two days, compared to at least five days in August 2022. However, their geographical scope appears broader than previous exercises. According to Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, these drills are encroaching on Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), forcing Taiwan to make decisions about engagement rules.
2. Increased Frequency and Involvement: Beijing now deploys military aircraft and naval ships around the island almost daily. Ben Lewis from the analysis website PLATracker noted the surprising focus on remote islands and the involvement of China’s Coast Guard in the drills, suggesting an interest in signaling deterrence and quarantine.

Conclusion

By conducting these drills, China aims to reinforce its stance against Taiwan’s independence, showcase its military preparedness, and send a strong message to the international community and its domestic audience. This move underscores the ongoing and escalating tensions in the region and the potential for further conflict if diplomatic resolutions are not sought.

These developments reflect the complex dynamics of cross-strait relations and the broader geopolitical implications for regional and global stability.