JJP and INLD Alliance with BSP and ASP a Short-term Gains Prone Alliance
Ahead of the assembly polls scheduled on October 1 in Haryana, political alliances are stealing the limelight. The JJP and the INLD declared their coalition with Azad Samaj Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, clearly aiming at the sizeable Dalit vote bank, nearly 21 percent of the electorate in the state. But then, as experts and political analysts view this reincarnation of an alliance, it has little prospects of working wonders for JJP and INLD, even as a strategically apparent move.
Political Landscape and Dalit Voters in Haryana
The Dalits, with one-fourth of the voters’ strength, represent the second-biggest chunk of voters in Haryana. As such, they are one of the most important electoral constituencies in the forthcoming election. Notwithstanding their size, during all these years, Dalit leaders in Haryana have confined themselves to positions such as heading the party organization or Cabinet berths but never as a contender for the chief ministerial position. While both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress had in the past made Dalits state party chiefs, the elevation to the chief minister’s chair had remained a distant dream.
Incidentally, the current Congress state chief is also a Dalit, Udai Bhan. The party is only trying to retain the Dalit vote. With 17 out of 90 Assembly seats being reserved for Dalits, these are crucial votes for any party hoping to make a serious presence in Haryana’s political arena.
Why JJP and INLD Are Eyeing Dalit Votes
Interestingly, JJP and INLD find a lot of common ground since their support base among the Jat voters is immense; after all, both these parties are purely regional parties. In recent years, much of this influence has waned, and with that, their reason to look beyond traditional vote banks. The alliance with BSP and ASP is an avowed attempt to woo Dalit voters to bolster its position in the state.
The JJP had won ten seats in the Assembly elections of 2019 and joined hands in a post-poll alliance with the BJP that broke down soon after due to differences on seat allocation. The vote share of this party has drastically dropped from 14.9% to just 0.87% in the elections this time, reflecting a severe denting of its support base. Similarly, the graph of the INLD has also been declining. Its vote share fell from 31.80% in 2009 to just 4.93% in 2019.
Challenges Ahead for JJP and INLD
Though this alliance with BSP and ASP looks more strategic to attract Dalit votes, this actually is a very ineffective alliance. According to Prof. Gurmeet Singh, a political analyst, ahead of them lay big challenges for both JJP and INLD to regain lost political ground. This decline in their vote share shows that neither of them was likely to seriously challenge mainstream parties like the BJP and the Congress.
While BSP is an older player, has some pockets in the state amongst Dalit voters, it has not been able to increase its vote share beyond below 5% since the 2014 general elections. On the other hand, ASP, under the leadership of Chandrashekhar Azad, is entering the political fray in Haryana for the first time and does not have an established base in the state. If that is so, then there is a possibility that alignment with BSP and ASP may not produce the results expected by JJP and INLD.
Views of the Rivals and Analysts
Opposing parties like BJP and Congress are not giving much importance to this alliance of JJP with BSP and INLD. Says Kewal Dhingra, a spokesperson for the Haryana Congress: “The vote share of JJP has fallen below 1%.An alliance with an unknown party like ASP is not expected to help the party much.”. Similarly, the spokesperson for BJP, Sanjay Ahuja, also lashed out at the alliance, stating that JJP and INLD had misled the Dalit community as a way of holding onto relevance in the political arena.
The Uncertain Role of BSP and ASP
BSP and ASP face their challenges in their own ways to get a hold in Haryana. While BSP, which has garnered some sense of support among Dalits in history, did not convert it into a demographic dividend worth the number of seats that the party expects, its ASP counterpart lacks the required organizational strength and voter base to help it perform considerably in Haryana.
Conclusion: Limited Gains for JJP and INLD
The alliance between JJP, INLD, BSP, and ASP has a strategic aim at tapping the Dalit vote bank. This is yet to bear fruit. The slipping fortunes of both the parties, together with their dwindling vote share, makes it tough for JJP and INLD to cash in on this alliance and regain the lost grounds. Besides, the limited reach and influence of BSP and the new entry of ASP into Haryana politics indicate that the alliance might not alter much in terms of electoral perspectives.
The JJP and INLD need much more than alliances to bounce back with the Assembly polls round the corner. They have to get back to their bases by reconnecting with the core voters, address the concerns of the electorate, and come up with a viable alternative to the mainstream parties in order to remain relevant in Haryana’s political spectrum.
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