Iran Postpones Retaliation on Israel over Killing of Hamas Leader
Tehran’s response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh may well be a long-drawn and calibrated one.
Iran announced it would not rush its retaliation against Israel following the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran recently. The announcement by Ali Mohammad Naeini, IRGC spokesperson, suggested that the response would be something strategically done and not something hasty.
Prolonged Reaction Expected
The killing of Ismail Haniyeh last month has ushered in new tension in the Middle East. Haniyeh’s assassination followed weeks after the killing of Hezbollah commander Fu’ad Shukr in an airstrike in Beirut. While the state of Israel has claimed responsibility for his death, it has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in Haniyeh’s killing. Reports have indicated that he was killed using an explosive device that was concealed in his guest house.
Iran and its allies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza blamed the attacks on Israel, with warnings of retaliation following these developments. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei blasted the State of Israel and said that the killing of Haniyeh, a “dear guest” murdered by Israel, would result in a sever punishment of the state. Hezbollah leadership also stated it was “inevitable” that it would respond to Shukr’s death.
Despite such reactions, the recent remarks of Naeini were an indication of a change in tone. He said that the response to Israel would not be immediate or impulsive. “Time is on our side and the waiting period for this response may be prolonged,” Naeini said. He told Reuters Iran’s actions would be “very calculated” and not necessarily a repetition of past operations.
Calculations of Strategy, Diplomacyebilir
The cautious step that the IRGC has taken could be reflective of an incremental strategy that would help avoid full-scale conflict. In April alone, Iran responded with some 300 projectiles against Israel in retaliation for an attack on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus, Syria, killing Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a senior IRGC commander. This was the highest level of direct attack between both countries so far.
On the heels of this incident, diplomatic efforts have increased to prevent a wider conflict. Negotiations on an Israeli-Hamas ceasefire resumed after the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said that Israel had agreed to a proposal that would address gaps in the ceasefire talks. The next step depends on Hamas accepting the same terms.
Former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaee urged Gazans to end their fighting, putting the blame on the U.S. and Israel for allowing hostilities to continue unabated. He believed a declaration of a ceasefire immediately after the war began would have prevented an escalation and created more headache for the U.S. Rezaee added that Iran is still studying the possible repercussions in case of a reaction against Israel, underscoring that the moves they will make are “very calculated.”
Possible Consequences of Ceasefire
In view of a possible ceasefire, it has been speculated whether Iran could revise its intended retaliation. Earlier, Iran’s mission to the United Nations expressed that Tehran’s response was “totally unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire.” This signifies that despite the going peace talks, Iran’s policy could still be that of calibrated response outside the ceasefire talks.
Some speculation does exist that Iran and Hezbollah would be gun-shy about further escalation, fearing a larger conflict with horrific consequences. Some analysts believe the pledges of retaliation might have placed both parties in an awkward position, which may result in delay to avoid a larger war.
As the situation unfolds, so do the eyes of the international community, which is keenly watching what happens next in this precarious geopolitical game of cat and mouse. Attention will now have to be paid to whether Iran abides by its promises of a measured response or if shifting dynamics will impact its approach to retaliation on Israel.
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